TuttleMath Network · Race 1 · Football · Entry 2
The Process — College Football
theprocesscfb.appFree · $15/wk · $399 season
Built June 2025 · Live since July 2026 — my personal earnings from this site are: $26,880.00
This UI was originally built for personal use only — that figure is my own lifetime result on this model, not a projection, an average, or anything you should expect to repeat.
Runs the GRIDIRON engine — a Markov-Nash simulation with James-Stein shrinkage on small samples — and gives you a projected final score, not a probability you have to translate yourself.
The PF/PA Claw-Back corrects for teams whose point differential is lying to you: blowout margins and garbage-time scoring get pulled back toward what the game was actually worth.
College football is the sport where small samples do the most damage. Three games into a season, half the ratings on the internet are describing schedule luck. Shrinkage is the unglamorous fix: pull every young number toward the mean until the games earn the right to move it.
How it runs
- 01Simulate the game drive by drive rather than fitting a single margin to a rating gap.
- 02Shrink early-season and low-snap-count inputs toward conference baselines.
- 03Claw back point differential inflated by garbage time before it reaches the projection.
- 04Publish the projected final score, the spread it implies, and the distance from the market.
Who it’s for
For Saturday bettors who want a number they can argue with. The projected score is the deliverable — if you disagree with it, you know exactly which side of it you disagree with.
Free tier covers the top games. $15/week or $399 for the season opens the full slate, including the mid-major board where the market is thinnest.