TuttleMath Network · Race 1 · Football · Entry 2

Runs the GRIDIRON engine — a Markov-Nash simulation with James-Stein shrinkage on small samples — and gives you a projected final score, not a probability you have to translate yourself.

The PF/PA Claw-Back corrects for teams whose point differential is lying to you: blowout margins and garbage-time scoring get pulled back toward what the game was actually worth.

College football is the sport where small samples do the most damage. Three games into a season, half the ratings on the internet are describing schedule luck. Shrinkage is the unglamorous fix: pull every young number toward the mean until the games earn the right to move it.

How it runs

1. 01Simulate the game drive by drive rather than fitting a single margin to a rating gap.
2. 02Shrink early-season and low-snap-count inputs toward conference baselines.
3. 03Claw back point differential inflated by garbage time before it reaches the projection.
4. 04Publish the projected final score, the spread it implies, and the distance from the market.

Who it’s for

For Saturday bettors who want a number they can argue with. The projected score is the deliverable — if you disagree with it, you know exactly which side of it you disagree with.

Free tier covers the top games. $15/week or $399 for the season opens the full slate, including the mid-major board where the market is thinnest.

Visit theprocesscfb.app